The RAND Health Insurance Experiment, conducted from 1972-1982 with 2,700 families, demonstrated that increasing cost-sharing through deductibles, co-pays, and co-insurance reduces overall healthcare spending by decreasing unnecessary care consumption, but simultaneously poses significant risks to vulnerable populations such as poorer individuals with chronic conditions like hypertension, who may forego necessary medical care and experience increased mortality rates; this creates a fundamental trade-off in healthcare policy between controlling costs and ensuring equitable access to essential medical services.
The RAND Health Insurance Experiment: Moral Hazard Explained
Added:So, I'm trying to pick out my plan. I have to decide if I want a high deductible. Do I want a high co-pay or a high monthly premium? Which would you rather pay the money up front or you want to pay it later? I don't know what's better. That totally depends on how you like it. Well, I I mean I I guess I guess I would like to pay it. I guess I would like it to be future Mi's problem rather than current Mi's problem. Pay it later. Okay, then go with a low deductible, but you're going to have high co-pay. You might also have high co insurance. You're certainly going to have a high deductible. What is co insurance? That's the stuff that doesn't fall into the co-ay but still is responsible for you.
What? Yeah, remember. Okay, fine. You got you got the premium, which is the now money, and then you got the deductible, but on top of the deductible, you either have to pay the co-ay or the co- insurance every time you see a doctor. This seems inefficient to me. This is what we get. We didn't stumble onto this system by chance. The reason all of this exists is because of a very important research study done a couple of decades ago. It's probably the most ambitious, largest study of health insurance that has ever been done or ever will be done. It was called the Rand Health Insurance Experiment and I'm going to tell you all about it in this week's healthcare [Music] triage. The Rand Corporation is a think tank that was established in 1948. They perform research in all kinds of areas, including health. And in 1972, they began an 11-year study of health insurance. You see, there was an ongoing debate about how insurance affects spending on healthcare in the United States. A number of people thought that insurance caused us to spend more than we otherwise would have on healthcare.
It's part of what we refer to as the moral hazard. Basically, the moral hazard is the idea that people who are insulated from risk behave differently than people who are exposed to it. For instance, if you have good car insurance, you might drive less carefully because you're more protected.
In health care, some apply the moral hazard to say that once you have good insurance, you're more likely to use healthare even if you don't need it. In my favorite example of this, because I find it amusing, not because I agree. If we all had employer paid grocery insurance, we might all demand filetmenan instead of hamburger. This would evidently lead to skyrocketing food costs, mass starvation, and huge piles of rotting ground beef. It's important to understand that people who apply the moral hazard to healthcare believe the people are using too much of it. And that's why our costs are so high. They believe that if we somehow changed how we pay for health care and exposed people to the true costs, they would become better consumers and the whole system would cost less. As a theory, the moral hazard in healthcare was first described only about 40 years ago in a seminal paper by the economist Mark Paulie. And it's still just a theory. Like many theories, it has good parts and bad. It's not an undisputed law. For instance, recent work by another economist named John Nyman explains that the moral hazard may actually do good in health care by encouraging people who otherwise wouldn't get care to do so. We want sick people to get care. And think about it, that supermarket example isn't even remotely comparable. If I made colonoscopies free tomorrow, no one would start picking them up by the dozen. If I declared that no one would ever have to pay for chemotherapy again, you wouldn't ask for extra. If surgeons refuse to accept payment for apppendecttomies anymore, would anyone go and get one just for the hell of it?
We have a hard enough time getting people to do the things we want them to do to be healthy without making it harder for them to do so. Anyone who loves meat loves filet minan. No one loves going to the doctor. What really matters is whether people are getting unnecessary healthcare. What we'd really like to know is whether people would spend less if the moral hazard was removed but stay as healthy. If that's the case, it's a good argument for making people pay more of their own bills. But if they get sicker, then it's a good argument for insurance covering all the costs. If you want to see if one thing causes another, though, you need a randomized controlled trial. You might think that a randomized control trial of health insurance would be incredibly difficult. You'd be right. There have been two that I know of in the history of the United States, and the Rand Health Insurance Experiment is by far the biggest. It contained about 2,700 families made up of people all under the age of 65. They came from six places across the United States to give it a nice geographic spread and they were all randomly assigned to one of four levels of insurance coverage. They ranged at how much individuals had to pay in co insurance from none to 25%, 50% or 95%.
In other words, they measured different levels of the moral hazard. The none plan would involve no costs at all to people. The 95% plan is much like a health savings account where almost all of the spending is out of pocket. The researchers interests were varied but centered on spending and health outcomes. The purpose of the study was to see if increasing the amount of cost sharing would change how people used healthcare and how their health was affected. The results are complicated and have been interpreted and misinterpreted too many times to count.
But here's the gist of what they found.
People in the high deductible plans, those who were most exposed to health care costs did spend significantly less and they consumed less healthare. And yes, much of that care was unnecessary as healthy people did not suffer negative consequences from foregoing care. Removing the moral hazard did no harm in the majority of patients, which is often touted as the result of the study because they were healthy. And of course, getting less care when you're healthy leads to few short-term negative results. So, it quickly became accepted fact that increasing cost sharing was a good thing. People would use less care.
They'd spend less. Insurance expenses and therefore premiums would come down.
Everyone wins, right? This is why we have deductibles, co-pays, and co- insurance. But, and this is important, there were other findings in the Rand health insurance experiment. Poorer participants with hypertension saw their mortality rates rise significantly. They died more. This is because it turns out that people are pretty bad at telling the difference between necessary and unnecessary care. If you're not healthy and you aren't rich, then you're more likely to go without necessary care and you're more likely to die. This debate isn't over. You can still find lots and lots of arguments from people who think that we're still too shielded from healthcare spending. They want high deductible healthare plans or even the elimination of all comprehensive insurance where only catastrophic things are covered. People who push for this believe that removing the moral hazard will not hurt people and will lead to significantly reduced healthcare spending. They're not totally wrong.
Removing the moral hazard is fine for most people. Yes, if we make it more expensive for individuals, if we demand more skin in the game, if we remove the moral hazard, people will seek less care. And that's fine for healthy people, but it's terrible for those who are ill. So, as we continue to reform the system, keep this in mind. Higher deductibles, co-pays, and co- insurance may be good for overall health care spending, but they may be bad for people's health.
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