Syrian Rebels as Police: HTS Patrol in Latakia | BBC News Analysis

The Syrian civil war began in 2011 and has resulted in the country being divided into multiple territorial zones. The Assad regime controls the largest area, while Islamist militants hold the northwest region around Aleppo. The northeast contains Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), predominantly Kurdish, which Turkey views as terrorists. The Golan Heights near Israel is occupied by Israel. This division reflects Syria's complex ethnic, religious, and political fragmentation, including Kurds, Arabs, Yazidis, Sunnis, Shias, and Alawites. The conflict has been fueled by sectarian tensions and foreign interventions.

The Syrian Civil War is characterized by four primary factions controlling distinct territorial zones, each backed by different international actors. The Assad regime controls central and western Syria with Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah support. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces dominate eastern Syria, backed by the United States. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham operates in the northwest, while Turkish-backed rebels hold positions along the Turkish border. This fragmentation creates overlapping zones of control and complicated alliances, with Turkey simultaneously supporting rebels against Kurdish forces while fighting ISIS. Understanding these territorial divisions is essential for comprehending the war's complexity.

The Syrian Civil War began on March 15, 2011, with Assad's Alawite minority (10-15% of population) maintaining power through military loyalty and foreign support from Iran and Russia. The opposition, representing 74% Sunni population, received backing from Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. The Islamic State emerged as a major power, controlling half of Syria by 2014. Western powers formed a coalition against ISIS in 2014, while the US backed Kurdish factions. Today, Syria is divided among three entities: Kurdish-controlled Rojava (25%), Syrian opposition backed by Turkey (11%), and Assad's government controlling two-thirds. The conflict has resulted in over 12 million displaced Syrians and continues to this day.

By 2019, the Syrian conflict had reached a de facto territorial settlement. The Assad regime controlled the majority of territory in western and central Syria, supported by Russian and Iranian forces. Kurdish-led forces controlled approximately one-quarter of the country in the northeast, having rebranded themselves as the Syrian Democratic Forces. Moderate opposition groups held about 10% of territory primarily in northern Idlib province. This division represents the current geopolitical reality of Syria, with each faction maintaining control over distinct geographic regions.

Syria is split into multiple territories: opposition groups in the south bordering the Golan Heights and Jordan (including radical Sunni Islamists and Druze); the main rebel coalition in the northwest led by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani (an Al-Qaeda and ISIS-affiliated terrorist); Kurdish forces controlling northeastern Syria; and Turkish forces occupying large swathes of northern Syria.

In areas controlled by the FPRC, the rebel administration establishes parallel governance structures including schools and hospitals funded through taxation. The rebels levy taxes on goods imported from Sudan and collect local market taxes of 150,000 CFA francs (230 euros) per quarter from traders. These revenues finance militiamen's food supplies and support parallel civil institutions. The largest school in the province operates only a few months annually with only three teachers for 750 pupils, while the hospital serves 66,000 people with only four consulting rooms and one doctor. This demonstrates how non-state actors can create functional administrative systems in the absence of central government authority, though such parallel governance entrenches rebel control and creates dependency on armed groups for essential services.

Insurgent groups that establish effective governing structures—providing public goods, administering regulatory functions, and deploying symbolic elements to legitimize authority—are more likely to survive and achieve favorable outcomes in conflicts compared to those that rely primarily on coercion and predation, as demonstrated by comparative case studies of the Tamil Tigers (effective governance, successful political incorporation) versus the RUF (predatory behavior, eventual disintegration).

Rebel groups that successfully overthrow a regime must transition from military rebellion to civilian governance. The HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, controlled Idlib and much of Northern Syria for years, effectively running a parallel government. This experience provided them with administrative capabilities, though governing an entire nation presents new challenges beyond military operations.

The transition from armed opposition to political governance requires fundamental organizational transformation. HTS demonstrated this capability by successfully administering Idlib for approximately eight years, managing complex governance functions including public services, taxation, border control, and economic management. This experience proved that the organization possessed the administrative capacity necessary for governing a larger territory. The case illustrates how insurgent movements can develop state-building capacities through prolonged governance experience, and how this capacity becomes critical when transitioning to political power.

This section challenges traditional views of civil war as breakdowns in systems, instead framing them as emergent alternative systems. Chris Kramer argued civil war is not stupid but reflects rational calculations. Francis Stewart's horizontal inequalities theory shows that group-based economic, social, political, and cultural inequalities raise conflict risk when coinciding with cultural differences. Zachary Amos explains that rebels must legitimize control through civilian rule and bureaucratic apparatuses, varying in political legitimacy. Non-state armed actors must shift from coercive means to durable governance forms constructed around alliances with local institutions, challenging liberal peacebuilding assumptions.

Idlib province is strategically important because it is one of the last remaining areas outside Bashar al-Assad's control, serving as the last rebel-held bastion in Syria. The province is home to approximately 3 million people, most of whom are internally displaced persons. Both Syria and Turkey are willing to escalate fighting over this region due to its strategic significance for each nation's objectives.

Idlib province, Syria's eighth largest by area, holds strategic importance as a gateway to the Mediterranean and along the international highway connecting Syria, Turkey, and Jordan. Since 2015, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has maintained complete control over the province despite it being part of the Astana de-escalation zones. The province hosts over 4 million people, half of whom are displaced persons fleeing other conflict zones. Under the Astana agreements, Idlib is divided into three zones: a demilitarized eastern zone under civilian control, a central zone under opposition control with Turkish observation points, and a western zone under HTS control. Turkey established 12 observation points in October 2017, protecting approximately 4 million civilians.

Latakia, Syria's coastal city, remains one of the most peaceful regions during the civil war because it is the ancestral home of the Assad family and the heartland of the Alawite minority sect, which forms the political base of the regime; this strategic importance explains why authorities have maintained relative stability there while other parts of Syria have descended into sectarian conflict.

Idlib and Latakia are described as critical strategic areas in Syria. These regions are significant because they serve as transit points for weapons transfers from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The video emphasizes that these areas are crucial for the flow of military supplies and support networks.

Idlib's strategic importance in the Syrian conflict stems from its location near the Assad dynasty's coastal stronghold in Latakia, its position along the critical Highway 25 connecting Damascus to Aleppo, and its agricultural resources that allow rebel forces to sustain prolonged sieges; the region has become a focal point of power struggle between the Assad regime (backed by Russia and Iran) and Turkey, which seeks to protect its border zone and prevent mass refugee flows, with multiple failed diplomatic attempts including the Astana Accords and March 2020 ceasefire negotiations.