Global Soft Power Index 2020: US Influence & Country Rankings

Realism and Liberalism are the two major theoretical frameworks in political science for understanding international relations. Realists believe great power politics dominates international relations and that the US should not be involved in small wars. They focus on great power politics, particularly China's rise. Liberals have a crusader mentality and are interested in promoting democracy and liberal values worldwide, often at the end of a rifle barrel. Liberals believe the US has a god-given right to intervene in the politics of every country. Realists tend to respect the sovereignty of other states, while liberals believe the US has a right to intervene globally.

International relations theory presents two competing frameworks: realism and liberalism. Realism, associated with Kissinger and Mearsheimer, holds that states should cooperate with any government willing to follow their interests, regardless of whether that government is dictatorial, authoritarian, democratic, or communist. Liberalism, conversely, advocates combating authoritarianism in any country, including within the United States and Europe, holding that no government is perfect and that democracy should be made more functional, equal, and tolerant. The United States has historically operated within both frameworks, with different administrations prioritizing different approaches.

IR theory divides into major schools: Liberalism emphasizes mutual benefit, cooperation, and institutions (Carl Duisberg's security communities, Robert Keohane's institutionalism); Realism focuses on power and survival (Morgenthau's actor-level analysis, Waltz's structural realism distinguishing defensive from offensive approaches). The Billiard Ball Model (Arnold Wolfers) and Copenhagen School represent competing theoretical frameworks.

Two main political theories explain international relations: Realism and Liberalism. Realism, based on Hobbes and Carr, holds that human nature is self-centered and competitive, requiring states to prioritize survival through power politics. Four propositions define realism: anarchy means no central authority exists; egoism means states pursue selfish interests; groupism means states are primary actors organized in polarity systems; power politics means survival requires force. Liberals, rooted in Locke and Kant, argue governments should protect natural rights to life, liberty, and property through social contracts. If governments fail, they lose legitimacy. This creates tension over intervention versus sovereignty, as seen in debates about Syria.

Realism and Liberalism represent two fundamental theoretical frameworks for understanding global politics: Realism argues that the anarchic international system means states can never trust each other and must constantly accumulate power for survival, focusing on hard power capabilities like military strength; Liberalism, in contrast, views international relations as cooperative, emphasizing liberal institutions, free trade, and the democratic peace theory that suggests liberal democracies are less likely to engage in conflict due to shared values and mutual economic benefits.

The Global Soft Power Index uses three key performance indicators: Familiarity (whether people know about a country's talents, businesses, and culture), Reputation (overall attractiveness and role model status), and Influence (perceived presence and impact in other countries). The methodology identifies seven pillars: Culture (arts, entertainment, food, lifestyle, sports), Governance (business climate, governance quality), Media and Communications, Education and Science, and general regard for a country's people. The research program gathered responses from over 100 countries, including 87 countries with over 50,000 general public participants and 1,000 expert/influencer specialists. The survey rated 60 nation brands for size and influence, expanding to 105 nations in subsequent waves.

The Nation Brand Index evaluates countries based on six key criteria: exports (economic performance), governance (political stability and effectiveness), culture (cultural influence and heritage), people (citizen behavior and characteristics), tourism (visitor appeal), and immigration (attractiveness to migrants). These criteria collectively determine a country's overall brand value and international reputation.

National brand refers to how a nation is perceived by other countries based on factors including government actions, cultural image, and the reputation of its people. The Nation Brands Index attempts to measure this through surveys and studies, though such measurements are inherently somewhat subjective. A strong national brand can add economic value to products from that country, as consumers associate quality with national reputation (e.g., Japanese automobiles). Conversely, a poor brand image can detract from diplomatic relationships, making it harder to achieve foreign policy objectives in countries where public opinion is unfavorable toward that nation.

The integrated indicator model combines quantitative and qualitative variables for operational brand tracking, serving as strategic input for aligning annual plans with positioning. The theoretical framework differentiates identity (base attribute from autoperception), image (total mental associations from accumulated experience), and country brand (management tool). The Nation Brands Index (NBI) by Simon Anholt/GfK measures 6 dimensions (exports, governance, culture, people, tourism, investments) across 23 attributes. Chile uses this model since 2008, providing time series for tracking. Internal indicators focus on identity and values through autoimage studies, while external indicators track activation impacts like Expo Milan and Chile Week.

The Nation Brands Index survey methodology involves: (1) Annual surveys since 2008 covering 60 countries; (2) 60,000 respondents across 20 panel countries, aged 18 and above; (3) 1-7 point scale where 7 represents maximum positive evaluation; (4) Six evaluation dimensions: exports (contribution to scientific innovation, creative ideas), administration/governance (competent governance, rights protection, international peace), culture (environmental protection, cultural heritage, arts), people/national character (welcome visitors, friendship potential, talent acceptance), tourism (natural beauty, historical sites, urban life), and immigration/investment (quality of life, website/SNS presence). Respondents rate their likelihood of working long-term in each country.

South Africa occupies a complex geopolitical position between major powers including the United States, China, and Russia. The country's top trading partners are China (number one), the United States (number two), Germany (number three), and Botswana (number four). The G7 and NATO represent core Western power structures, with the United States leading as the world's largest economy and military power. BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) represents an alternative alliance to Western powers. South Africa has been pushing toward alignment with BRICS, particularly Russia, because economic development without military power backing is considered risky. The Russia-Ukraine war (2014) demonstrates how conflicts in one region can affect global power dynamics. South Africa is transitioning from coal to green energy as part of global efforts to address climate change, with billions of rand invested in this transition.

South Africa has played significant global roles including leading African delegations to Russia and Ukraine for peace discussions, and being the only African country to take Israel to the International Court of Justice for genocide charges. As Africa's major economy and leading BRICS player, South Africa maintains global diplomatic influence. The US cannot easily exclude South Africa from the G20 because other G7 partners like France and the UK have extended invitations. The US is banking on other G7 partners supporting its accusations, but this failed as countries have their own interests.

This segment analyzes the major powers shaping 2020 geopolitics. The United States maintained global military presence through alliances with Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, plus bases in Saudi Arabia. China's GDP of 15 trillion approached the U.S. 21 trillion, with Belt and Road Initiative expanding influence across Eurasia. Russia, under Putin's stable leadership, maintained CSTO alliances but faced challenges from former Soviet states joining NATO. Europe remained relatively stable after 80 years of peace, while the Middle East's 90% of Japan's oil imports made regional stability critical for Japanese economic survival.

According to Marco Rubio, the new US Secretary of State, America is no longer the unipolar power of the world. The unipolar superpower moment that began with the fall of the Soviet Union has passed into history. This means America is now a regional power, and the world is in a multipolar world divided into spheres of influence around regional hegemons including South Africa, Nigeria, BRICS nations, Turkey, Egypt, and the US. The US is primarily interested in the Northern Hemisphere and Western Hemisphere, which is why it is turning its sights on Europe and targeting its former allies. Diplomats from Global South countries should be aware that the risks of confronting America have changed. Being timid was pragmatic in 1995 but not in 2025. South Africa is in an extremely strong and powerful position with leverage it has never wanted to use in the past.

This segment covers major global events including the 2020 US presidential election where Joe Biden was confirmed as winner after manual recounts in Georgia, with a 6 million vote discrepancy. Donald Trump refused to accept defeat. China concluded the RCEP agreement connecting 14 Asia-Pacific economies, representing 30% of world population and $26 trillion GDP. NATO Secretary General warned against precipitous US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the largest defense budget in 30 years. Germany commemorated 75th anniversary of Nuremberg Trials. Peru experienced political chaos with President Vizcarra impeached for corruption. The EU and US are reducing tariffs after two decades, with trade exceeding $1.3 trillion annually. The EU may approve Moderna and Pfizer vaccines by mid-December. Bulgaria declared it cannot support Macedonia's EU accession due to historical disputes. EU member states reached agreement on supplementary financial assistance package for pandemic recovery. Poland and Hungary threaten to block the EU recovery plan if it remains conditional on rule of law.