Stock Market Super Cycle: Historical Context and Catalysts Explained

[00:00:00]The Fed just announced the official end of quantitive tightening. That's money shredding. And that's just one and a half weeks from now. And in exactly two weeks, they're cutting rates again. But here is what Wall Street isn't telling you. This isn't just another policy shift. We have nine massive catalysts converging right now for the first time in 40 years, creating the exact same setup that launched the greatest bull market in history from 1982 to 2000. I started investing in 1999, by the way.

[00:00:37]But if you understand what's coming, you could position yourself on the right side of this tremendous wealth transfer.

[00:00:44]So if you own any financial assets, your 401k, stocks, bonds, real estates, cash, anything, this could potentially multiply your wealth or it could you well missing out on the biggest wealth transfer in history. My name is Felix P.

[00:00:58]I'm a former investment banker. That is Hugh there just now. It was sort of skittering skitting about saying, "Don't spill the beans, Felix. Keep it to yourself, Felix."

[00:01:07]But I've seen how Wall Street actually operates on the inside. and I've since founded the Goat Academy where we've taught over 20,000 students how to invest better. I'm also the co-founder of tradevision.io where we provide you with the news and the data that made me come to the conclusion I'm about to give you. So, I'm dedicating my retirement which is tremendously fun to share what I learned, share what I learned from my mentors to help you guys protect your wealth from the schemes and shenanigans of Wall Street. So for this video, what have we done? We fact checked a ton of stuff. Fed policy documents, historical super cycle data, especially in the 82 to 2000 period, earnings projections, geopolitical stuff, and Winston who's around here somewhere, snoozing, of course, did all of the hard lifting.

[00:01:57]That's my golden retriever. Large nose.

[00:01:59]You see, you can sniff things out. So what you're going to learn here in the next few minutes are the nine catalysts that are creating this historic setup.

[00:02:08]That's item. That's promise number one.

[00:02:11]The second promise, I'll explain to you why this mirrors the 82 to 2000 super cycle that literally turned regular Joe's into millionaires. And then third, I'm going to give you my action plan, the specific sectors, the specific stocks that I think we should own, and we're going to walk you through those.

[00:02:32]Right now, let me show you why this moment is so rare. We've just come through one of the most aggressive monetary tightening cycles in history.

[00:02:43]What does that mean? The Fed raised rates from zero to over 5% in just 18 months. They drained 1.6 trillion dollar from the economy through what they call quantitive tightening. It's sort of like ompic but for financial markets, right?

[00:03:01]So, liquidity sucked out of the financial system. And it worked. We had inflation. It went from to 9% because a little Jerome Powell printed a little bit too much money, but he does not like to be reminded of that. So, let's just keep that to ourselves.

[00:03:15]Inflation is back down to below 3%. So, the Fed crushed inflation. Nobody talks about the fact that they actually created it. But anyway, it's a parallel to what Paul Vulkar did in the early 1980s. Back then, inflation went to 6% and then he brought it back down to 3%.

[00:03:31]Right now, here's what happened next. In 1982, the S&P bottomed out in August 1982 of that year. It then rallied for 18 straight years. 18 straight years. And investors made over a,000%.

[00:03:53]So, think of it this way. The Fed just spent two years tightening your belt with those ompic shots, forcing you to cut spending, drain your savings. Now they're about to hand you a credit card with a massive limit and tell you to go spend it. That's what ending quantitive tightening and cutting rates means for the financial system. So liquidity is about to flood back in. Liquidity is back, baby. And when liquidity comes back, what happens to asset prices? they go up. That's it. It's as simple as that. Now, I haven't just gone through the one super cycle in history to find the best comparison point for what's coming. I also went through the 50s and 60s. That was different. That was low inflation, steady growth. Not the right thing. I also looked at 2009 2021 closer, but it started from deflation, not from inflation. So, it was different. But 82 to 2000, that is literally our road map. And I'll tell you why. In 82, unemployment hit over 10%, highest since World War II. The economy was contracting. GDP was like minus 1.8%.

[00:05:04]But the market didn't wait for the recovery. It bottomed as I said in 82, the moment investors believe the Fed's war on inflation was won. Then came the pivot, the rate cuts, the lower borrowing costs, and then the 18-year bull market. So the first phase was the recovery. Jobs came back, profits and companies rebounded. The second phase was the tech revolution. The internet transformed everything from 95 to 2000.

[00:05:32]I got my first computer in 1994. So excited. AOL was my favorite thing to like dial on. It's amazing. NASDAQ went up 600%. We're in that sane setup. We've just gone through the pain. Unemployment ticked up to 4%. You know, job numbers nowadays are a little bit more massaged aggressively. They don't believe you could handle 10%, so they call it four.

[00:05:54]The economy slowed down, but inflation is falling down now and the Fed is pivoting. It's your signal. It's 1982.

[00:06:03]We should really be playing some really great 1982 songs right now, right? And any suggestions, guys, put it in the comments down below. Some really great 1982 songs. I was two years old at the time, so I'm not really your go-to guy for that. But people sometimes say to me, look, the Fed just can't keep doing this. It calls another inflation spike or the market's overvalued with due for a crash or geopolitical risk are high. Well, here's the reality. The Fed has no choice. The government is 38 trillion or something in debt. It pays a trillion per year in interest. They can't let rates stay high. it would bankrupt the country. So, they're going to ease. They're going to lower rates. And what are they going to do? Well, they're going to keep the market pump. They did the same in in in the 40s, by the way, 42 to 51, when the US had more than 100% debt of GDP, they did exactly the same thing.

[00:07:02]So, there's no no choice there, right?

[00:07:04]But let's jump into the nine catalysts I promised you because Wall Street understands these, but most of us do not. They're literally not one, not two, but nine. And they're all happening within the next few months. So when you stack up all these catalysts, this isn't a bull market. This is a super cycle.

[00:07:22]The kind that comes every 20 or 40 years. And you're in luck. It might come right now. Now, do I have a crystal ball? No. Winston broke mine. But I can give you the facts and the figures that I've double checked and verified and you can then come to your own conclusion because I'm explaining it to you. I'm not telling you you run out and go buy this, right? That would be silly. It'll be financial advice. It will be illegal.

[00:07:45]We don't do that. So, it's not about picking what to buy. It's about knowing when Wall Street starts to become bullish because that's when it's easiest to potentially make the most money. But before I break this down for you, I want to give you something that I find insanely useful. I get my news and my data of what's happening with my stocks on the market this way. It pops onto my phone on the stocks that I care about, on the sectors I care about, on the general market that I care about, and it gives me the news. Not random news, not politics, not distractions, just what moves the market and my stocks. And if you want to get access to that, you can get access to a free trial and an insane Black Friday deal. We've never done one before. Trade Vision has never done one before. What's Tradevision is a software that I co-founded and help build to give you guys access to the same data that we should all have access to. It's available at felixfriends.org/tradevision.

[00:08:46]It's a link down below. Might even manage to pop a QR code on the screen here for you. Um, it has never been cheap. It will never be cheap. I can promise you that. So, there's a free trial. There's zero risk. Check it out.

[00:08:57]Okay. All right. So, let's jump into it.

[00:08:59]And before some people say, "Oh, this sounds too good to be true." I'm going to show you the data. I'm going to show you the precedent. I'm going to show you the mechanism for each one of these nine catalysts. Catalyst numero uno. This is what's happening. In just one and a half weeks from me recording this, the Fed is going to stop shredding money. The drain stops, right? And what does that mean?

[00:09:23]It means more money goes back into the market. That's more liquidity in Wall Street terms, fancy words. Interest rates go down and asset prices go up.

[00:09:34]That's just the law. So what happens?

[00:09:37]Stock prices go up. And everybody on Wall Street seems to also believe they're not not just going to stop shredding money, they're going to start printing money again. Now if you create money, money always wants to make more money. So money is going to go where it makes the most money. And in an era era of low interest rates, which is coming back, not as low as they were, but lower stocks are typically the place where you get the highest returns. In fact, risky stocks are the places where you could potentially get the highest highest returns, which is why we're seeing such beautiful bull runs and some of our biotech picks and things like that. I'm going to look at some specific ones in a in a moment towards the end of this video. Now, our second catalyst are rate cuts. The Fed has already cut rates twice, right? So, the Fed fund rate is now at few point 75% or something.

[00:10:31]They're going to cut again in two weeks in mid December. And there's some skeptics out there saying, Felix, rate cuts mean recession. That's bearish.

[00:10:39]It's all over. And yes, historically, they're right. Eight out of 10 rate cutting cycles led to a recession. But there is a difference. Why is the Fed cut? If they were cutting because the economy is collapsing, that is bad. But if they're cutting because they won the inflation fight, well, different. That's bullish. Unemployment sits at 4%.

[00:11:03]Historically low. Inflation is at 2.9% fairly close to the target. Profits of companies are growing at over 10%. It's expected to be 13% next year. The economy isn't collapsing. The Fed is pivoting from fighting inflation to supporting growth. And that's literally the 1982 playbook. And lower rates mean one thing. Well, a lot of things. Lower mortgage costs, car loans, everything.

[00:11:35]So, you have more money. So, you spend more money. But it also means lower just general corporate borrowing costs, which means you're going to see higher profit margins, right? Higher profits. You're going to see more investments and therefore more profits mean higher stock prices, higher consumer confidence. They therefore spend more. Right? That's it.

[00:11:59]More money, more problems, more money, more money, more problems, what bigly says. So third catalyst, Russia Ukraine war ending. And every time I mention the war, I I get I get killed in the comments for some reason. People are very people seem to just enjoy war or something. The Russia Ukraine war is moving towards a resolution. I don't know the exact timing, but the talks seem to be progressing and there is a strong incentive to end it. Now why does this matter? Well, when this war started in 2022, what happened? Oil prices spiked. Gas prices spiked. Wheat and fertilizer prices spiked, especially in Europe.

[00:12:42]Why? Ukraine is sort of the wheat basket of Europe. And oil and gas, well, Russia is a massive, massive exporter. The EU banned most Russian oil imports. Well, sort of pretty weak, but anyway. and it affected supply chains. So inflation went up. So we estimate the war added 1 to 2% to US and European inflation. Say it's just 1%. What if we go from 2.9% inflation back to 1.9% inflation? Now we're below the 2% target. Interest rates are going to collapse. So the war ends, energy prices stabilize, inflation falls, and risk will be back properly, which means risk stocks, think tech and biotech and so on. They're going to go through the freaking moon right now.

[00:13:32]Then Ukraine will need to be rebuilt.

[00:13:35]There's always profit and war, isn't there? That's hundreds of billions of infrastructure demand. And guess who's going to rebuild that? Well, a lot of American firms, a lot of European firms because they were like, "Well, we financed the war. I know we blew it all up and now we want to, you know, rebuild it, right?" Um, war is a beautiful thing, isn't it? It's a horrible thing.

[00:13:55]It's a really, really just horrible thing, but it's apparently incredibly profitable. Now, if you're in those defense stocks, especially those European ones, yeah, they're still going to spend a lot, but the top might be coming in there right now. Catalyst number four, the China trade truce.

[00:14:14]Not a full resolution, but it is a deescalation. Tariffs are only 10%.

[00:14:20]Apparently, the China is going to buy a ton of US GMO soybeans. Poor Chinese pigs, whoever gets to eat those. Um, soybeans are mostly made for for animal feed, unfortunately. Um, especially all the GMO stuff. And so, the export controls are postponed. There are rumors that US might allow some more Nvidia exports. So what happens? Well, US farmers win because they get more purchases. Tech companies because they get lower costs and consumers because they get lower prices from made in China goods. That's catalyst number four. What do all those things do? Well, they lower inflation. The fifth catalyst. Wow, we're already number five. Crypto.

[00:15:06]The clarity act. It's a comprehensive crypto market structure bill. It is moving through the um special halls of Congress with bipartisan support.

[00:15:17]Apparently, everybody's got crypto. And you might think, Felix, I don't own any crypto. Why should I care? All right, here's why. Regulatory crit regulatory clarity for digital asset unlocks about 300 billion in institutional capital over the next 12 months. pension funds, insurance companies, endowments, they've been sitting on the sidelines because they legally can't invest in an unregulated asset class like crypto.

[00:15:46]Once this bill passes, institutional money will flood into crypto. Crypto will surge because it is now a legitimate asset. So, the approval of the Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, that was step one. Those ETFs have already bought I don't know 100 billion plus in in in in Bitcoin. Now the steps too is regulation. That's like the internet in 1996. Massive potential upside. But when people make a lot of money into in crypto, where does some of that money flow? Well, some of it will flow into stocks and into real estate because people want to diversify out of what they still perceive as a risky asset. So the wealth effect is that it lifts the entire market, not just the crypto stuff. And then you got Catalyst Numeros, the one big beautiful bill. Um that was just sty checks um through tax cuts. Well, and a lot of tax cuts for you know the standard deduction increased the child tax credit increased lower individual income tax rates on the permanent and then you have deductions for auto loans interest and and so on.

[00:16:55]So what does it do? It puts money directly into consumer's hands and the tax foundation estimates this will increase GDP by 1.2% in the long run.

[00:17:09]Now, I don't know whether those numbers are, you know, biased one way or the other, but it's going to be good for GDP overall. Now, consumer spending, you Americans are nutty, aren't you? 70% of the US economy is just you and your plastic swiping things or beeping things nowadays. So, when you have more money, the economy grows. You have more disposable income. You spend more.

[00:17:32]Therefore, companies have higher revenue. You get higher stock prices.

[00:17:36]That's it. Right? So your money flows directly back into the stock market. Now which sectors benefit the most? Well, retail, right? That would be the most obvious one. Travel, leisure, dining, car companies, all that stuff. So this is stimulus hitting when? In 2026? Just before the midterms.

[00:17:57]Politics is a beautiful thing, isn't it?

[00:17:59]Number seven. I wasn't going to include this because it's kind of a bit complicated, but it's called yield curve control YCZ.

[00:18:10]Basically, okay, it's a Fed tool. And and here is why it actually matters. The Fed sets a cap on Treasury yields, specific maturity, say the 10-year, they say it can't go over 3%. And then they commit to buying bonds to enforce that limit. Why did they do that? Because they want to keep interest rates low.

[00:18:32]They did it from 42 to 51 to finance World War II. Um at the time they it doesn't matter what the numbers are, but they did that because debt was really high and the government couldn't really afford higher rates. Now debt right now is higher than it was at the end of World War II, $1 trillion in interest.

[00:18:51]So the mechanism is quite simple and we've seen this already that interest rates are going up. So the Fed comes in and says rates will not go above this level. We're just going to buy all the bonds. So when you have more buyers, the interest rates drop because you have more demand and it prevents a debt spiral. Now for the stock market, so for you in your portfolio, YCCC is rocket fuel. It guarantees low interest rates for the long term. So investors leave bonds because they know they can't make any money there and then they pour their money into stocks. So it floods the stock market with cash. Japan's been doing this since 2016. By the way, the Japanese central bank owns something like 50% of all government debt. It's it's a crazy system, but it does weirdly work. The US starts to implement it.

[00:19:50]This would be the most bullish catalyst imaginable. So, watch out for this. If it does happen, when it does happen, Trade Vision will ping you a little notification and you're going to be like, I know what this means. Yield conf control. Felix, explain it. It's weird, but apparently it's good. Right? Just to remember that bit. That's kind of the important stuff. Catalyst number eight is a little easier to understand.

[00:20:12]Earnings, fancy word for profits.

[00:20:14]Profits are picking up 10% this year, 13% next year. Beautiful profit margins and this is literally the highest profit margin we've had in 15 years. Why?

[00:20:27]Because the US economy is shifting towards higher margin businesses, knowledgebased industries, tech sector, right? Tech sector has like a 27% net profit margin. That's now the dominant part of the S&P. Plus, AI productivity gains are kicking in. So, companies are using automations to cut costs, become more profitable. Not necessarily good for employees, but very good for shareholders. So, you might want to be both if you are an employee. So, that was eight. And then number nine is the jobs market. The jobs market is improving. Apparently, unemployment picked up a little to 4.4% which actually means the Fed can cut rates.

[00:21:08]And I mean it's the government who makes up the data. Sorry, compiles the data.

[00:21:14]So, you know, could be a could be an intentional thing, but it is still historically very low. The market is basically saying, we think it's going to be all right. And when there are more jobs out there, you get more income, consumers are more confident, they'll spend more, you get more profits for businesses, stock prices go up, right?

[00:21:33]So I would expect that by mid 2026, no particular political reason why mid 2026 will be relevant. I think the inflation unemployment rate is going to tick back towards 4%. Because that's apparently how you win elections. So we put this all together, nine things, right? You can start to see how this all works together. They're not separate events.

[00:21:55]It is literally a self-reinforcing cycle that creates what I call a super cycle.

[00:22:01]And my cat appears to agree because she's very noisily meowing in the corner. So, what do we want to own?

[00:22:07]Look, it's not financial advice, but let me walk you through a couple of things that I think are interesting to own.

[00:22:13]Tech, and I mean specifically tech with high margins. I'm I'm a margin obsessive is where I want to put money. So, we've got Microsoft on here, Nvidia, Apple for example. And if we pull open some of those charts, um we're not going to pull open every single one of these, but just one or two of them, then we can run through and see a little bit like why this is interesting. Okay, so Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple here. Actually, let me skip those. I I'll jump into what's more direct like consumer discretionary for example, Amazon, Tesla. So let's have a look at Amazon here. And I've got Amazon open here in in Trade Vision. And what what can you see when you see something like this? I put a bunch of lines in here and maybe it's a few lines too many. Let me reduce one or two. Um get rid of all my scribbles and drawings. But there's one thing here. You see that those lines?

[00:23:04]That's support and resistance from an institutional level. It's data that you'll only get in trade vision literally. Nobody else has it. And the way that works is that we look at the institutional market. So the the options market where we can see every single major trade we can literally see them flowing in here live and we then calculate from that where those institutions have to buy and sell.

[00:23:30]Now it's got something to do with hedging which is a little complicated.

[00:23:32]There's an full explanation in inside trade vision if you care to understand it properly. But for the moment what I'm saying is we've got these lows. If I just connect the lows down here, right, and then most of the highs, you got this sort of box you're trading in. And in fact, the institutional resistance is a little lower than that.

[00:23:51]It's sitting at 230. Now, right now, as I'm recording this, we're trading at 230. So, there's a decent chance we're going to break out of that zone and therefore reclaim the recent highs, sort of 238, and then make our way back up to 250. So, this is a sort of makeorb breakak moment here for Amazon. So, you might want to watch out for that one.

[00:24:10]And I think that's quite a useful one.

[00:24:12]And you could literally also go into into the dark pool here and if you any stocks you're interested in got Palanteer here open, but you could type in Amazon and say, well, let's have a look at what were institutions doing with Amazon yesterday. Well, they were very bullish. They bought a ton of call options, 12 million call options.

[00:24:30]Insane. And you can see that data live like literally as I'm recording as the markets closed, but it'll come in like second by second, minute by minute. And watch out for the biggest trades. you could watch out for the most unusual traits also. That can be an interesting thing to look at. Uh so that's basically what we're looking at there. So you might want to get yourself a free trial to this so you get access to the the real data which is here inside Trade Vision. There's a link down below and then also follow the news. We'll put the news alerts out for you, the ones that matter, the ones that are impactful. Um, and then you're going to get those onto your mobile phone app and they'll just pop up the way I showed you earlier so that you get news only for the things that actually matter to you, right? So, for me, like stocks I'm interested in here, like some of those that pops up on my my screen and then I can tap on that and it'll load that. There we go. So, you can see exactly what's happening directly with your stock. Let's run through a couple more of these here. Um, I've also had on the list here Tesla. Um then we look at some financials, some real estate. So Tesla is essentially doing something here. You see the highs here from January. Well, guess what? We still haven't broken through that. So that 450 is kind of where it's at.

[00:25:44]That's also where institutions are sitting here at 450. So now you know that. So you kind of want to break through the 450. Break through the 450. you take out these highs here which sit around 470 and the parties parties getting started um the stim checks and so on should help somewhat lower interest rates definitely why because people don't buy cars people lease or finance cars so therefore the the the finance rate really is what matters if you look at the big banks big beneficiaries here also from crypto weirdly JP Morgan who used to say Bitcoin is uh is for u you know drug dealers and that sort of thing they're now fully behind And um well again we've had a little bit of a breakout to 317 through 320 here.

[00:26:30]Institutions are still sitting at 320.

[00:26:32]You break through the 320 and you know the party's on. Coinbase had a horrible rundown for you for you dip buying loons. Uh this can be an interesting one because it's bounced off the support down here at 230. It's grinding its way back up. I think it's a very high risk place to buy it right now. So that's uh between your and your and your god and your risk manager and your financial advisor. But yeah, it looks like it's it's making it's making a run there. It certainly will when Bitcoin recovers.

[00:26:58]And then we have real estate, an industrial REIT, good for e-commerce growth and so on. PLLD called Prologus.

[00:27:07]And what do you hear see? Well, they got hammered with interest rates, right?

[00:27:11]They were trading at 171. Now they're at 128 and Delta's a much better business by now. So, it is again something that could be breaking out. It's taken out some of the recent highs here. It's actually looking much much more positive than everything else I've just shown you. It's just taken outs October high, right? So, we're quite liking that one.

[00:27:28]And then it's also going to be good for a lot of the risk stuff. So, I look at my watch list of some of the higher risk stuff we got on here. You know, BIIB is something I bought at about 140 down here and that's rallying very nicely and it's loving that rates are coming down.

[00:27:44]and it's loving everything that's happening in the biotech sector because AI is making it happen again. Please don't run out and buy it. But what I'm saying to you is that there are tons of opportunities right now. So the way I look at the timeline is it's going to be a bit choppy for the next couple of months, but the trend is going to start moving up. My humble opinion, I think we're going to get some really beautiful returns in the next couple of years. Um, but it'll take 5 to 10 years for AI to really unfold and really really really become impactful. So, it's going to take always takes longer for new technologies to convert into profits than people estimate. So, what would I do? Well, start auditing your portfolio. Think about how much cash you want to hold.

[00:28:25]Start looking at tech, consumers, financials, real estate, and um make sure you got some really good risk management. That's obviously the key with it. Or make sure you're informed.

[00:28:35]And you can do that by going to felixpens.org/tradevision.

[00:28:38]Lock in the free trial, which would also give you access to the insane Black Friday offer, which we've never done.

[00:28:43]Uh, I don't think we should ever do it again to be honest with you, but um, yeah, it's just insanely cheap. Fenix runs.org/trademission. So, lock that in and if you got some value out of this, share with a friend. All the best. Wall Street's buying the dip for a very simple reason, but they're not telling you that reason. This kind of pisses me off. Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest investment banks out there, they just put out this note. They send out this weekly