SACP vs ANC: GNU Tensions Explained by Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu

The speaker explains that the 1994 GNU was different from the current GNU. In 1994, the ANC had 62% and had a clear majority, but there was an understanding that white people needed to be brought in to build confidence. The current GNU has no one with a majority mandate - the ANC has lost and the DA has lost. This is a government of losers who need each other and can afford to be arrogant.

A Government of National Unity (GNU) typically emerges from crisis and negotiation toward stability, requiring a negotiated framework. Unlike the 1994 GNU prescribed by the interim constitution with clear thresholds, the current post-election GNU lacks predefined terms—it is merely an invitation to conversation. The ANC proposes a 'quasi-gnu' where they define the conversation but face challenges as parties exit negotiations, leaving them with limited options. True GNUs require societal polarization that demands representative governance, whereas this arrangement lacks such foundational crisis.

Despite the loss of majority, the ANC remained the single largest party and moved swiftly to stabilize the political environment. The NEC identified three immediate objectives: promoting national unity and stability, safeguarding state power for NDR goals, and rebuilding public confidence. Four post-election scenarios were evaluated: moving into opposition (rejected as dereliction of duty), grand coalition (rejected for allowing veto power), minority government (rejected for instability), and inclusive government of national unity (adopted unanimously). The GNU was viewed as a tactical intervention rather than strategic compromise, with the ANC retaining control of key ministries central to transformation. The cabinet adopted the medium-term development plan for 2024-2029 guided by the outcomes-based approach of the 2024 ANC manifesto. Major interventions included the 2025 national industrial policy, a 100 billion transformation fund, expansion of support to spaza shops and small enterprises, and infrastructure investment exceeding 1 trillion over 3 years.

The 2024 South African election resulted in a Government of National Unity (GNU) coalition between the ANC and DA, which political analyst Sandile Swana argues represents a 'troika' of big business, the ANC, and the DA that has failed to deliver on key promises like Eskom and Transnet improvements, with GDP growth at only 0.6% and unemployment continuing to rise, while the ANC faces succession challenges and declining electoral support, and opposition parties like MK and EFF have struggled to provide substantive economic policy alternatives despite their strong foreign policy positions.

A report is being prepared analyzing how the 1994 settlement agreement has been broken. This report will compare ANC promises made during negotiations in the late 1980s and early 1990s with current reality. Promises included protecting property rights, minority communities, independent Chapter 9 institutions, and eliminating corruption. The speaker contrasts these with today's situation, describing it as 'flabbergasting.' The international community, particularly the USA and UK, actively promoted this system as the only acceptable solution.

COSATU (Congress of South African Trade Unions), founded in 1973 during the Durban Strike, is a major trade union federation in South Africa that has fought for workers' rights including the National Minimum Wage (achieved in 2018). The organization maintains an alliance with the ANC and SACP, though tensions exist as the SACP prepares to contest elections independently. COSATU Secretary-General Edwin Mkhize criticizes smaller unions as 'view once' organizations with little impact, and expresses concerns about Jacob Zuma's leadership, while emphasizing that COSATU's democratic structure means workers themselves own and control the organization.

COSATU's Parliamentary Coordinator Matthew Parks explains that the trade union is establishing a political alliance council with the ANC and SACP to address underlying issues within the tripartite alliance, while strongly opposing Finance Minister Tito Mboweni's economic development strategy plan, particularly proposals to scrap the minimum wage, remove worker protections, and privatize Eskom, arguing that electricity is an essential public good that must remain affordable to consumers and industry.

The ANC conference reveals significant tensions within its alliance partners. COSATU, the largest public sector union with 2.3 million members, is in a standoff with the government over a rejected 3.5% wage increase and is lobbying the ANC to drop a 'shadow moratorium' on public sector wage negotiations. The union feels marginalized by the ANC, having been given the 'cold shoulder' until the last day of the conference. Meanwhile, the SACP has criticized the ANC's economic policy as neoliberal, stating they lack a leftist candidate in the leadership race and disagree with positions on state-owned enterprises. The SACP advocates for strengthening state capacity to protect infrastructure and building working-class capacity. These alliance tensions highlight the complex dynamics of coalition governance and the challenges of maintaining unity among diverse political partners with fundamentally different economic visions.

The relationship between COSATU and the ANC is full of contradictions because of the constituencies they represent. COSATU understands how the alliance was formed and will talk about it. The political commission of COSATU will look into the released documents of the ANC NGC. The alliance summit is being looked forward to as a way to ventilate issues as a component of the alliance. The relationship will continue to have contradictions because COSATU represents over 1.5 million members and will represent the interests of workers organized or not organized. COSATU has always said its support for the ANC is not a blank check. The federation is not going to wear blindfolders. While workers took a decision to support the ANC, they must go out and convince others when they themselves may not be convinced. When your own government that you want to put in power is the one that has undermined your very own existence and the laws that are supposed to protect you, it becomes difficult to convince others when you are not convinced yourself. The salary freeze issue is being raised to the African National Congress, stating that while COSATU is in alliance with the ANC, it is independent from the African National Congress and will not be paralyzed in defending its members. COSATU took a resolution in its last conference in 2018 to support the African National Congress, but this will be evaluated in the Central Committee going through its 14th National Congress where a decision can then be reversed, changed, or maintained. The Central Executive Committee concluded that the National Democratic Revolution has entered a difficult period. The episode of major challenges is within the ANC, which is marred by corruption scandals, public recrimination, and is gradually experiencing decline in support amongst the people. The meeting lamented the poor state of organizational and personal discipline in the ranks of the ANC and the lack of desire for action by elected officials. The ongoing challenges of unity and coercion, especially among leadership at all levels and between organizational leadership and those deploying government, is a problem. The lack of political will and decisive strategic leadership in implementing the more challenging social economic resolutions from the Nazareth conference is deeply worrying, combined with austerity measures being implemented by the administration. The current implementation of austerity measures reflects a troubling development in what amounts to a strategic deviation. The nature of the contradiction is increasingly becoming more than just technical and political issues; they've become strategic and class contradictions that also relate to the ideological conversation of the content and objective of the NDR.

COSATU President Sdumo Dlamini argues that the ANC's National Development Plan fails to address radical socioeconomic transformation, criticizing its economic chapter as repetitive and ineffective. He calls for nationalizing the Reserve Bank to shift from inflation targeting to employment creation, making the Mining Charter more meaningful for mining communities, and implementing a total ban on labor brokering to protect workers. Dlamini emphasizes that the conference should focus on economic policy rather than leadership changes, while maintaining COSATU's position that President Zuma should step down.

The GNU continues with the same neoliberal macroeconomic framework since 1996, which has been criticized for failing to address South Africa's economic crisis. The progressive caucus in Parliament, dominated by MK and EFF, will constitute the official opposition. South Africa's political landscape has become increasingly fragmented and poisonous, with the rise of MK capturing significant portions of the colored working-class vote. The speaker describes this as a 'mess' that undermines the country's ability to address fundamental challenges.

ATM argues that the GNU coalition continues policies of economic liberalization, including privatization of state-owned enterprises and policies benefiting private sector interests. The party contends that real transformation requires black South Africans to own the means of production, including insurance companies, banks, and land. Without such ownership, black South Africans remain bystanders in their own country. ATM argues that current economic policies will continue the same trajectory of limited transformation for another 30 years. The party contends that political leaders have historically revived radical policies only when pushed into corners, creating a cycle of rhetoric without implementation.

The Government of National Unity (GNU) in South Africa is described as being 'on a knife edge' during this critical period. The Expropriation Without Compensation Bill was signed unilaterally by President Ramaphosa without proper consultation with GNU partners, which is described as unacceptable behavior. The DA and other opposition parties should fight against the bill but not withdraw from the GNU coalition. The three priorities of the GNU are: (1) Keep Jacob Zuma and MK out of government, (2) Deliver economic growth, and (3) Solve crime. The immediate priority is keeping Zuma and MK out of power, which requires staying within the GNU coalition.

Since South Africa's democratic transition, economic policy has been highly contested. The Reconstruction and Development Program (RDP) and Growth, Employment and Redistribution Strategy (GEAR) were formulated to achieve growth for masses, but inequality, poverty, and unemployment persisted. In 1996, President Mandela fired the RDP office and appointed Jay IDU to privatize Telkom and impose GEAR, enabling a liberalization block including Trevor Manuel. This liberalization increased vulnerability to the world economy. Trevor Manuel, as Finance Minister from 1996, achieved continuous growth since 1999, averaging 5% annually since 2003, with GDP per person increasing over 20% since 2000 and adding 1.5 million jobs. However, this growth occurred during a global commodity super cycle and deregulated credit environment, where debt accumulation allowed current consumption with deferred repayment.

The Government of National Unity (GNU) has been cautiously optimistic, with both ANC and DA support levels improving since the election. The GNU is expected to implement business-friendly policies, SOE cleanups (particularly Eskom and Transnet), and deterioration in state capture. The absence of load shedding since March and increased renewable energy investment (from 10% to 20% of installed capacity) are positive indicators. Modeling suggests these reforms could raise South African GDP growth to more than 3% and add 1 million jobs over the next decade. This level of growth has not been experienced since 2013's 2.5% growth figure.

In South Africa's GNU coalition government era, opposition parties like the EFF and MK Party face both opportunities and threats: they can leverage their combined 25% electoral support to become the primary opposition force, exploit the coalition's internal ideological incoherence and leadership vulnerabilities, and employ parliamentary, legal, and protest strategies to challenge the government; however, they must also address internal party stability issues and manage potential disappointments from electoral outcomes to maintain their political momentum.

Coalition politics struggles due to ideological differences between left-leaning parties (ANC, MKP, EFF) and right-leaning parties (DA). The ANC characterizes itself as left-leaning but distinguishes between nationalist parties based on ethnicity or race, which it considers right-wing. Finding middle ground between parties with contrasting views is extremely difficult, particularly at the national level where policy differences are most pronounced. Coalition partners often have different constituencies and priorities, making cooperation difficult. Parties without township constituencies may not understand or appreciate the importance of township development and basic services. This creates a fundamental disjuncture where parties cannot relate to each other's priorities. Coalition negotiations often fail because parties cannot understand each other's reality-based priorities. A party may oppose human settlements budget because it seems like a 'drag on the budget,' not understanding that 1.3 million people need shelter. For someone living in a shack for 20 years, shelter is a fundamental priority that cannot be compromised.

Left-wing populist parties are emerging across Europe, including Germany's BSW, seeking to address immigration concerns from left-wing perspectives. These parties represent a potential correction to traditional left-wing parties' failure to connect with working-class voters. Western democracies have developed systems allowing minority governments to remain in power despite widespread unpopularity, through mechanisms like banning parties and creating electoral systems favoring centrist candidates. The European integration project has failed to create genuine political union because it requires member states to accept policies they fundamentally oppose.

The EFF positioned itself as the uncompromising far-left alternative with a platform of land expropriation, nationalization, and anti-ANC rhetoric. In its first election, it became the first party in South Africa's history to steal a significant portion of ANC support. By 2019, EFF support rose to over 11%, with the ANC dropping below 60% for the first time. The EFF secured 44 seats in the National Assembly, competing with the DA and ANC. However, in 2024, the MK party was formed by Jacob Zuma's supporters, ending the EFF's monopoly as the main alternative to disgruntled ANC voters. The MK party, only months old, gathered 14% of the vote—significantly more than the EFF's peak. Former ANC voters increasingly chose MK over EFF, and even EFF voters defected. The EFF was now in crisis, with internal divisions emerging.

Floyd Shivambu's departure from the EFF to join Jacob Zuma's MK party represents a significant blow to the EFF. The EFF was founded by two expelled ANC members: Floyd (the brain with a master's degree) and Julius Malema (the loud mouth). Their union created the party's success. The EFF failed to capture state power for 10 years, which explains why they cannot implement their radical manifesto. Without state power, they cannot kill people or enforce policies. The MK party is not a proper political party but rather a family affair with headquarters in Jacob Zuma's private house. The party contested elections without policies, with different leaders saying different things. The prominent MK leaders are almost all facing corruption allegations or criminal charges. The MK party of the ANC was a terribly weak army that failed to topple the apartheid government for its entire existence. The MK party is a Zulu nationalist party closest to the Zulu Monarch, representing royalist feudalism, but Floyd identifies as a communist and Marxist. Communism and feudalism are fundamentally incompatible ideologies.