Can Lebanon Disarm Hezbollah? Sovereignty vs. State Within a State

[00:00:00]Can Lebanon finally get rid of Hezbollah?

[00:00:03]For over 40 years, this Iranian-backed   group has been one of the most  powerful forces in the country.

[00:00:09]As well as fighting Israel in the south, it's also  grown into a dominant player in Lebanese politics.

[00:00:15]But now things could be changing.

[00:00:18]A series of events have weakened the group   and the Lebanese government is  openly pushing for it to disarm.

[00:00:24]But while this carries significant  rewards, it also has major risks.

[00:00:30]So, how did Hezbollah become so powerful?

[00:00:33]And could Lebanon really be on the  verge of removing it altogether?

[00:00:38]Hello and welcome.

[00:00:40]My name is James Ker-Lindsay, and  here I take an informed look at   international relations, conflict, and security.

[00:00:48]One of the foundations of sovereignty is   that states control all legitimate  armed force within their borders.

[00:00:54]Indeed, it's central to a government's authority.

[00:00:58]In theory, no group should be able to  carry weapons outside of state control.

[00:01:04]But the reality is often very different.

[00:01:07]Across the world, militias have  emerged in weak or divided states.

[00:01:12]Sometimes this is the result of civil wars.

[00:01:15]At other times because of direct foreign backing.

[00:01:18]But while many of these eventually fade away once  stability returns, others continue, often growing   stronger by filling the roles that the state  can't, such as providing services and welfare.

[00:01:31]And once they've taken root, they  can be extremely hard to remove.

[00:01:36]Hezbollah is one of the clearest examples of this.

[00:01:39]For decades, it's been considered one of the   most powerful armed non-state  actors anywhere in the world.

[00:01:46]But now, for the first time, Lebanon's government  is openly demanding that it hand over its weapons.

[00:01:52]But while this could mark a turning point for the  country, Hezbollah seems determined to resist.

[00:02:00]The Republic of Lebanon sits at the  far eastern end of the Mediterranean.

[00:02:04]To its north and east lies Syria,  and to its south is Israel.

[00:02:09]With a population of about 6 million, it's one  of the most diverse countries in the Middle East.

[00:02:15]The three largest groups are the Maronite  Christians, Sunni Muslims, and Shia Muslims.

[00:02:21]But the country is also home to a wide range  of other communities, including Armenians,   Kurds, Druze, Orthodox Christians,  and a large number of Palestinians.

[00:02:32]Although Lebanon's history stretches  back for thousands of years,   our story really starts during  the Second World War when French   colonial rule came to an end and  Lebanon gained its independence.

[00:02:45]At the heart of the new  state was the National Pact.

[00:02:48]This divided political power between the  three largest religious communities with   the Maronite Christians, the biggest  single group, taking the presidency.

[00:02:58]However, as the Muslim population grew, it pushed  for a greater share of political influence.

[00:03:04]On top of this, things became more  complicated after 1948 when Lebanon   and other Arab states fought  against the creation of Israel.

[00:03:13]Having been defeated, tens of thousands of  Palestinians, most of them Muslim, fled into   Lebanon, upsetting the delicate religious  balance between the country's communities.

[00:03:24]And over the years that followed,  tensions steadily grew until in 1975,   Lebanon collapsed into a brutal civil war.

[00:03:33]The conflict would become one of  the most complex civil wars of the   20th century with over 100 different  factions forming and switching sides.

[00:03:43]It also had wider regional effects.

[00:03:46]Crucially, as fighting raged, Palestinian   militias in Lebanon stepped up  their attacks against Israel.

[00:03:53]And as a result, in June  1982, Israeli forces invaded.

[00:03:58]And it was this that created the  opening for another outside power   to become involved, the Islamic Republic of Iran.

[00:04:06]Just a few years earlier, in 1979, Iran's Islamic  Revolution had overthrown the country's king,   installing a hardline Shia theocratic regime.

[00:04:16]Committed to Israel's destruction,  Tehran now backed the creation of   a new Shia militia in Lebanon,  Hezbollah, or the Party of God.

[00:04:26]With Iranian money, weapons, and training,  the group steadily grew stronger, not only   fighting Israel, but also becoming a  major force in Lebanon's civil war.

[00:04:36]All this would come to a head when  the war finally ended in 1990.

[00:04:41]While most of the militias disarmed as part  of the peace process, Hezbollah refused,   arguing that Israel's troops were  still occupying southern Lebanon.

[00:04:51]But while Israeli forces eventually withdrew in  2000, Hezbollah carried on launching attacks.

[00:04:58]As a result, in 2006, Israel  launched another invasion.

[00:05:03]But while this soon came to an end  with a UN resolution calling for   Hezbollah to disarm, the group remained intact.

[00:05:11]The 2006 war would mark a turning point.

[00:05:15]While Hezbollah kept on building  its arsenal and occasionally   launched attacks against Israel over the  following years, its focus now shifted.

[00:05:24]For a start, it became heavily  involved in the Syrian civil war,   helping Iran to prop up the Assad regime.

[00:05:31]Meanwhile, at home in Lebanon,  it expanded its social programs,   offering health care, education,  and welfare in Shia areas.

[00:05:40]As a result, while the group remained a powerful  militia with an estimated 25,000 regular fighters,   and tens of thousands more reservists, it  also established itself as a fully fledged   political party, eventually gaining seats  in parliament, ministers in government,   and an effective veto over many policy areas.

[00:06:01]Indeed, many began calling  it a state within a state.

[00:06:06]But all this would change on  the 7th of October 2023 when   another Iranian-backed group, Hamas,  launched a surprise attack on Israel.

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[00:06:25]And now back to the video.

[00:06:28]At first, many expected that Hezbollah would   seize on the Hamas attack to launch  a full-scale conflict against Israel.

[00:06:36]However, fears of a second front were soon averted  after strong warnings from the United States and   others to Iran that any moves to exploit the Gaza  war would be met with an overwhelming response.

[00:06:49]But while Hezbollah held back from  launching a major attack against   Israel, tensions nevertheless  remained high throughout 2024.

[00:06:58]As Hezbollah continued firing  rockets into northern Israel,   Israeli forces intensified their  operations against the group.

[00:07:07]This would all come to a head  in September 2024 when Israel   detonated mobile phones used by  Hezbollah members in an attack   that killed and injured thousands and  destroyed the group's communications.

[00:07:20]Then just days later, it killed Hezbollah's  long-standing leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.

[00:07:27]Finally, on the 1st of October, Israel launched   its long-planned invasion of southern  Lebanon in order to destroy Hezbollah.

[00:07:36]After weeks of heavy fighting, international  pressure forced a ceasefire in late November.

[00:07:42]But while Hezbollah was now badly weakened,  the situation would get worse for the group.

[00:07:47]Just weeks later, in December, the  Assad regime finally fell in Syria,   cutting off Hezbollah's key supply route to Iran.

[00:07:57]Then in June 2025, Israel attacked Iran  directly, destroying much of its military   infrastructure and leaving Tehran far less  able to support groups like Hezbollah.

[00:08:10]And it's this that forms the  backdrop of what we're seeing now.

[00:08:15]Following intense pressure from the United States,   the Lebanese government announced in  August 2025 that it had tasked the   country's army to come up with a plan to  disarm Hezbollah by the end of the year.

[00:08:27]Crucially, this has also been supported  by Europe as well as by other Arab states,   including Saudi Arabia and key Gulf  countries, which have made it clear that   further aid and financial support will  now depend on progress on this matter.

[00:08:42]However, and as expected,  Hezbollah has rejected the call,   insisting that the move is a result of  foreign threats and pressure and that   there can be no talk of disarmament  until Israel leaves Lebanon entirely.

[00:08:55]It's warned that any attempt to remove its weapons   will lead to mass demonstrations  and could spark renewed fighting.

[00:09:03]Likewise, Iran has also voiced its opposition,   emphasizing that Hezbollah remains a  crucial part of its regional strategy.

[00:09:12]It's cautioned Beirut against giving  in to Western or Israeli pressure.

[00:09:17]But for now, the Lebanese government  appears to be holding firm.

[00:09:21]Condemning Hezbollah's threats,  the country's prime minister,   Nawaf Salam, has insisted  that the plan will go ahead.

[00:09:28]At the same time and in response to claims  that the decision was forced on the country,   the Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has said  that the move is in fact a sovereign decision.

[00:09:41]Needless to say, any effort  to press ahead with the move   would carry significant benefits and risks.

[00:09:47]On the one hand, disarming  Hezbollah could strengthen Lebanon.

[00:09:52]Driven by a complex combination of factors,  including intercommunal feuding, Hezbollah's   influence, and Israel's invasions, the country  teeters on the brink of becoming a failed state.

[00:10:03]By bringing all weapons under state control,  Lebanon can strengthen its fragile institutions,   reduce the risk of internal conflict,  and improve its international standing.

[00:10:14]Especially as all this could unlock  badly needed foreign aid and investment.

[00:10:20]Likewise, it would also remove a  major source of friction with Israel,   lowering the chances of another devastating war.

[00:10:28]However, the risks are equally stark.

[00:10:31]Despite the damage it sustained,  Hezbollah remains a well-armed militia.

[00:10:36]It also effectively controls the  country's large Shia community.

[00:10:40]On top of this, many see it as  a vital shield against Israel.

[00:10:45]Trying to remove the group's  weapons against its wishes,   especially if this is done without  parallel security guarantees,   could not only deepen sectarian divides,  but it could also spark violent resistance.

[00:10:57]In the worst case scenario,   many fear that it could even plunge  the country into a renewed civil war.

[00:11:04]To add to all this, Hezbollah's close  ties with Iran further complicate matters.

[00:11:10]Tehran views the group as a  cornerstone of its regional   strategy and is unlikely to  allow it to be dismantled.

[00:11:17]Then again, given its current weaknesses,   many would argue that this is precisely the  best time to push ahead with disarmament.

[00:11:25]Of course, the counterargument to all this is  that disarmament doesn't equal destruction.

[00:11:31]Hezbollah could continue as a political party.

[00:11:35]But while this is true, for now  the group doesn't see it this way.

[00:11:39]Instead, it considers any attempt to remove its  weapons as an effort to eliminate it altogether.

[00:11:45]And in view of its history and objectives,   disarmament would certainly mark a  fundamental change to the group's identity.

[00:11:53]And it's for all these reasons that  Lebanon now faces a critical choice.

[00:11:58]While disarming Hezbollah could  strengthen the country's sovereignty,   independence and stability in the long term  and could even avert future wars with Israel.

[00:12:07]Attempting it under current conditions risks  destabilizing this fragile country even further.

[00:12:13]I hope you found that useful.

[00:12:15]If so, here are some more videos  that you might find interesting.

[00:12:18]Thanks so much for watching  and see you in the next.