Bosnia-Breaking Point: Dayton's Crisis and Secession Risks

[00:00:00]Is Bosnia finally on the brink of collapse?

[00:00:03]For the past decade, fears have  been growing that the country's Bosnian Serb entity may try to break away.

[00:00:09]However, despite dire predictions,  the country has held together.

[00:00:14]But now, things seem to be at breaking point.

[00:00:17]Amidst what many see as Bosnia’s most serious  political crisis since the end of the war 30 years ago, international peacekeeping forces  in the country have just been increased.

[00:00:28]So, what exactly lies behind  the current situation?

[00:00:32]And could this really be the moment that the Bosnian Serb entity finally  makes its bid to break away?

[00:00:38]Hello and welcome. If you're new to the  channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay, and here I take an informed look at international  relations, conflict, security, and statehood.

[00:00:50]In international relations,  it's widely accepted that peace agreements can vary in their effectiveness.

[00:00:56]In some cases, they can lay the groundwork  for a long-term and sustainable arrangement.

[00:01:01]They address the root causes of the  conflict, establish inclusive and durable political institutions, and ensure  mechanisms for justice and power-sharing.

[00:01:11]However, others are less successful.

[00:01:13]While they may stop the immediate bloodshed,  they fail to resolve the deeper divisions and entrench differences, often setting  the stage for renewed instability.

[00:01:23]An often-cited example of the  latter is the Dayton Agreement, which ended the Bosnian War in the 1990s.

[00:01:29]While it halted the country's  bitter and brutal conflict, it’s ultimately laid the foundations for  political paralysis and ongoing tensions.

[00:01:38]In turn, this has fed a steadily growing sense that the country may be at  risk of a return to conflict.

[00:01:45]Bosnia and Herzegovina lies in Southeast Europe.

[00:01:49]At 51,000 square km, or 20,000 square  miles, it shares a border with Croatia to its north and west, Montenegro to  its south, and Serbia to its east.

[00:01:59]It also has a tiny stretch of coastline.

[00:02:03]Its population is believed to be around 3.2  million, divided into three main groups.

[00:02:09]According to the last census carried out in 2013, the largest group are the Bosniaks,  once known as Bosnian Muslims.

[00:02:17]They represent around 50% of the population.

[00:02:20]Next are the Bosnian Serbs at 31%.

[00:02:24]The third are the Bosnian Croats at 15%.

[00:02:27]The remaining 4% is made up of other groups, including Albanians, Roma,  and the Jewish community.

[00:02:35]Bosnia has a long history.

[00:02:37]Having been part of the Ottoman and Habsburg  Empires, following the First World War, it became part of the new Kingdom of Yugoslavia.

[00:02:45]This lasted until the end of the Second World  War when it became one of the six constituent republics of what would eventually become  the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

[00:02:56]For the next 35 years, Yugoslavia was ruled  by its long-term strongman, Josip Broz Tito.

[00:03:03]However, in 1980, Tito died, and  Yugoslavia began to disintegrate.

[00:03:08]In 1991, Slovenia, Croatia, and  Macedonia broke away from the federation.

[00:03:13]Following their lead, Bosnia  and Herzegovina declared its independence in March 1992 and was admitted  to the United Nations shortly afterward.

[00:03:24]However, Bosnia’s Serbian  population rejected this.

[00:03:28]Arguing that the Yugoslav constitution granted  them the right to determine their own future, with the support of neighboring Serbia, they  unilaterally established a separate state, Republika Srpska—often known by its initials, RS.

[00:03:43]Meanwhile, as the Bosnian Croats also  moved to create their own separate state, the country quickly descended into war.

[00:03:51]After several years of bitter fighting, the  first steps towards peace came in early 1994, when the Bosnian Croats and the Bosnian  Muslims agreed to form a joint entity—the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina—which  was composed of ten self-governing cantons.

[00:04:08]But while the fighting continued with the Bosnian  Serbs, things changed in the summer of 1995.

[00:04:14]Following a massacre of 8,000 men and boys in  Srebrenica in eastern Bosnia by Bosnian Serb forces, the United States and European Union  forced the sides to the negotiating table.

[00:04:27]On the 14th of December 1995, the presidents of  Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia signed the General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and  Herzegovina—better known as the Dayton Accords.

[00:04:39]Under the deal, Republika Srpska, which  held 49% of the country's territory, agreed to give up its claim to independence.

[00:04:47]Instead, it would be reintegrated into Bosnia as a separate entity alongside  the Croat-Muslim Federation.

[00:04:56]At the same time, Bosnia was restructured  as a highly decentralized state.

[00:05:01]While a joint national government  existed under a three-way presidency, it dealt with relatively few areas, such as  immigration, customs, and foreign policy.

[00:05:11]Instead, most issues now  came under the two entities.

[00:05:15]Meanwhile, the constitution also cemented  the strict separation between the Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs, imposing rules  on who could hold what positions.

[00:05:25]To make all this work, the agreement also  created the post of High Representative.

[00:05:31]This granted the appointed international official  sweeping powers, including the right to sack Bosnian officials contravening the agreement  and ban them from holding political positions.

[00:05:43]At first, Bosnia appeared to be recovering well.

[00:05:46]As reconciliation efforts took off,  welcome signs of reintegration emerged.

[00:05:51]These included the creation  of a joint army and various steps to centralize justice and law enforcement.

[00:05:58]But despite this, by the middle of  the 2000s, tensions were reemerging.

[00:06:03]A landmark ruling of the European Court of  Human Rights declared that the country's ethnically based constitutional system was  discriminatory and needed to be changed.

[00:06:13]Meanwhile, as further reform efforts began  to fail and the country's central government became increasingly dysfunctional,  ethnic divisions steadily hardened.

[00:06:23]It was against this backdrop that in 2010, the Bosnian Serbs elected Milorad Dodik  as the new president of Republika Srpska.

[00:06:31]Having already raised the issue of  an independence referendum before assuming office, his separatist talk became  increasingly strident once he got into power.

[00:06:40]Pushing back against what he saw as  unacceptable efforts by the Bosniaks to challenge Republika Srpska's autonomy, he  began to speak more openly about breaking away.

[00:06:51]This in turn led to a  succession of political crises.

[00:06:56]For example, having openly questioned  Bosnia's viability as a state, and suggesting that RS had the right to  secede, in 2011, he organized a referendum on whether Republika Srpska should reject  the authority of the Bosnian state judiciary.

[00:07:11]Although he eventually backed down  following international pressure, in 2015, he then called for another  vote, this time on outright independence.

[00:07:20]But while this never happened, another  crisis emerged the following year when the Bosnian Constitutional Court  outlawed the annual 9th of January "Statehood Day" marking Republika  Srpska’s declaration of independence.

[00:07:33]This time, a referendum went ahead, showing that 99.8% of Bosnian Serbs  supported keeping the holiday.

[00:07:43]I hope you’re finding this useful!

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[00:07:50]Thanks so much, and now, back to the video.

[00:07:53]Following on from all of this, over the past  decade, tensions have steadily continued to rise.

[00:07:59]In addition to frequently raising  the possibility of breaking away, relations between RS and the central  government have gone from bad to worse.

[00:08:08]At the same time, relations have also broken down between the Bosnian Serbs  and the High Representative.

[00:08:14]For example, in response to increasing Bosnian  Serb efforts to downplay the events in Srebrenica, the High Representative made genocide denial a  crime punishable by up to five years in jail.

[00:08:27]Incensed by the move, Dodik accused the High  Representative of overstepping his powers.

[00:08:32]In addition, he retaliated by announcing that not  only would Bosnian Serbs in future boycott joint state institutions, but that over 130 laws imposed  by the High Representative would be annulled.

[00:08:44]On top of this, Republika Srpska would plan  to withdraw from central state institutions, including the army, judiciary, and tax authority.

[00:08:54]But while this plunged Bosnia  into yet another crisis, efforts to put all this into action soon stalled.

[00:09:01]Aside from facing intense international  pressure—including EU and US-imposed sanctions and travel restrictions on key  Bosnian Serb officials, including Milorad Dodik—the Bosnian state courts and the High  Representative blocked many of the measures.

[00:09:16]In retaliation, the Bosnian Serb leader now approved legislation that  rejected their decisions.

[00:09:22]And it’s this that lies at the  heart of the latest crisis.

[00:09:27]In 2023, Bosnian prosecutors indicted Dodik  for undermining the constitutional order, challenging the powers of the High  Representative, and promoting separatism.

[00:09:37]All this would come to a head in February 2025.

[00:09:41]Following a high-profile court case, a Bosnian state court found Dodik guilty  and sentenced him to a year in prison.

[00:09:48]At the same time, he was banned from holding  any political office for a term of six years.

[00:09:54]Unsurprisingly, Dodik rejected the verdict.

[00:09:58]Calling the decision illegitimate  and politically motivated, he refused to accept the court’s authority.

[00:10:04]At the same time, the RS National Assembly  retaliated by passing legislation barring state-level judiciary and law enforcement  agencies from operating within RS and declaring that any Serb who continued to  work for them would face criminal charges.

[00:10:20]But while the Bosnian Constitutional Court has  suspended the laws, Bosnian Serb authorities have ordered the national police to leave their offices  in Banja Luka, the capital of Republika Srpska.

[00:10:32]Meanwhile, all this has led to  considerable international concern.

[00:10:37]In addition to strong criticism from  the European Union, which has called the latest developments a challenge to  Bosnia’s legal order and has bolstered its peacekeeping mission in the country,  the United States has also weighed in.

[00:10:49]In a sign of foreign policy agreement  between the US and the European Union, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has  criticized Dodik for his “dangerous behavior.” Meanwhile, on top of this, the new  NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has also visited Bosnia to assess the situation.

[00:11:08]But while Dodik is certainly facing considerable  Western pressure, he’s far from isolated.

[00:11:13]Aside from neighboring Serbia, which has also criticized the court  ruling, Russia has weighed in.

[00:11:19]Indeed, having worked to build up close  relations with Moscow over recent years, Dodik has even received direct support  from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

[00:11:29]Meanwhile, EU solidarity on the  issue has been undermined by Hungary.

[00:11:34]As well as voicing his support  for the Bosnian Serb leader, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán  has reportedly sent 300 police officers to Republika Srpska to bolster  the Bosnian Serb security forces.

[00:11:47]All this has raised fears that Dodik  may now try to push for a final split.

[00:11:53]Although the chances of this succeeding  are incredibly slim even now, any change in the US position could  create the conditions for secession.

[00:12:02]What once seemed utterly impossible  now seems rather less absurd, leading to heightened fears on the  ground that this could lead to war.

[00:12:11]Of course, many long-term observers argue  that we’ve been here many times before.

[00:12:17]Bosnia is in a perpetual state of crisis.

[00:12:20]Indeed, the last decade has seen  non-stop claims that Bosnia is on the brink of breaking apart  or that a new war is imminent.

[00:12:27]But others would insist that this  shouldn’t lead to complacency.

[00:12:31]The steady escalation of tensions over many  years has reached such a peak, and the changing international circumstances are such, that there’s  now a sense that Bosnia is at a critical juncture.

[00:12:43]Many believe that Dodik’s actions have tested  the post-war constitutional order to its limits.

[00:12:48]In this sense, the country’s future  will be at risk if decisive action isn’t taken against the Bosnian Serb leader.

[00:12:56]But balanced against this, others argue that if action is taken and the Bosnian police force  their way into Republika Srpska to arrest Dodik, this may also lead to disaster,  as clashes could quickly erupt.

[00:13:09]If this happened, many fear that it  would lead to more widespread fighting.

[00:13:14]In the worst-case scenario, and after many  years of heightened tensions, there are fears of a return to full-scale war, especially if  international attention is focused elsewhere.

[00:13:26]And it’s for all these reasons that  Bosnia now seems balanced on a knife edge.

[00:13:31]After years of growing confrontations  between the Bosnian Serb leader, the central authorities, and the High  Representative, there’s a sense that the decisions taken in the next few weeks and  months could well decide the country’s future.

[00:13:45]I hope you found that useful. If so, here are  some more videos that you might find interesting.

[00:13:50]Thanks so much for watching,  and see you in the next video.