The Kashmir Conflict Explained | History, Politics & Geopolitics

In 1998, India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests, announcing themselves as nuclear powers. This event shocked the world and changed the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia. At that time, US President Bill Clinton called South Asia the most dangerous place on Earth due to the nuclear standoff between these two nations.

India's nuclear tests in May 1998 (Operation Shakti) marked a full-blown reset of defense posture, changing how India thinks about war, peace, and deterrence. Previously maintaining nuclear ambiguity, India adopted clear nuclear policy: No First Use, Credible Minimum Deterrence, and Civilian Control (where elected leaders, not the military, control nuclear decisions). This civilian control principle reshaped India's military hierarchy, demanded integration, precision, and made joint operations feasible. The tests proved India could be both powerful and responsible, having the bomb without putting global security at risk.

In 1998, both India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests, marking a significant escalation in the nuclear arms race between the two nations. This event fundamentally changed the strategic landscape of South Asia, as both countries became nuclear-armed states, leading to increased tensions and the establishment of nuclear deterrence as a key element of regional security.

In 1998, Pakistan conducted nuclear tests to demonstrate its nuclear capabilities, prompting India to respond with its own nuclear tests. On May 11, 1998, India conducted nuclear tests, officially declaring itself a nuclear weapons state. On May 28, 1998, Pakistan followed with its own nuclear tests, becoming a nuclear weapons state. Both nations faced economic sanctions from the US and Western countries as a result of their nuclear tests. This marked a significant shift in the regional balance of power and international recognition of nuclear states in South Asia.

In May 1998, Pakistan conducted five underground nuclear tests in Baluchistan province as a response to India's nuclear tests two weeks earlier, which Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif justified as necessary due to India's weaponization of its nuclear program that had collapsed the existing deterrent balance in the region; the tests resulted in no radioactive release and were celebrated by Pakistanis as a demonstration of national capability and strategic strength.

Article 370 of the Indian Constitution grants special autonomous status to the state of Jammu and Kashmir, allowing it to have its own constitution and legislative assembly while maintaining limited integration with the rest of India; this provision was abrogated in August 2019, fundamentally changing the state's constitutional position within the Indian Union.

In August 2019, India's government revoked Article 370, which granted Indian-administered Kashmir special autonomous status allowing it to function largely independently in matters of lawmaking except for defense, foreign affairs, and communications; this move, driven by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu-nationalist led BJP government seeking to appeal to its Hindu majority electorate, transformed the region into a union territory under direct New Delhi control, split into two parts (Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh), and sparked widespread protests and international condemnation from Pakistan, who views the decision as a violation of longstanding bilateral agreements and international law.

Article 370 was added to the Indian Constitution in 1950 as part of the Instrument of Accession signed by Maharaja Hari Singh, granting Jammu and Kashmir special autonomous status with its own constitution, flag, and separate laws, while restricting Indian Parliament's legislative powers to defense, foreign affairs, and communications; this arrangement was abrogated in August 2019 when the Indian government bifurcated the state into two Union Territories.

The revocation of Article 370 in 2019, which removed Jammu and Kashmir's special status, has significantly strengthened the strategic alliance between Pakistan and China, creating a unified front against India. This geopolitical shift has raised concerns about regional security dynamics, as Pakistan now receives substantial military support from China, including advanced J-35 stealth fighter jets and infrastructure investments, fundamentally altering the balance of power in South Asia.

With the valley nearly 100% Muslim, an insurgency broke out declaring Sharia law. Cinemas shut, alcohol banned, women told to cover up or face attacks, and any Muslim sympathetic to India became a legitimate target. Hindu temples were sacked and destroyed. The Indian state sent thousands of troops, suspending civil liberties in many areas. Reports of extrajudicial killings, forced disappearances, and human rights violations were pinned on Indian forces. By the 2000s, the insurgency lost steam as India integrated local Kashmiri Muslim leaders into normal professions and power structures by giving them governance roles, business opportunities, and jobs. Many Kashmiris benefited economically, and profit loves peace. However, the situation changed dramatically on August 5, 2019, when India revoked Article 370 and 35A, removing Jammu and Kashmir's special status and granting it equal status to other Indian states. Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed this would root out dynastic politics and corruption, end terrorism, and bring development. The Indian government imposed internet shutdowns, arrested politicians, and placed the region under lockdown. Despite fears of mass uprising, no major protests occurred. Non-Kashmiris could now settle, buy land, and invest, opening roads, hospitals, and jobs.

India faces simultaneous conflicts with Pakistan and China, both nuclear-armed nations. Following Pakistan's terrorist attacks, India launched military strikes while China mobilized state media propaganda through Weibo, Baidu, and Global Times to frame India as the aggressor. The core territorial dispute centers on Aksai Chin, which China captured in 1963 through a secret agreement with Pakistan, despite India's unanimous parliamentary rejection. China's Belt and Road Initiative investments in Pakistan, including the $600 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, create strategic dependencies that complicate conflict resolution.

The Kashmir dispute became more complex as a third actor entered the equation. In 1962, India and China went to war over Aksai Chin, a high-altitude mountainous region in eastern Kashmir crucial for China because it connected Tibet with Xinjiang. Since then, that region has remained under Chinese control. In 1963, Pakistan also ceded to China the Shaksgam Corridor, further consolidating China's presence. What began in 1947 as a bilateral dispute between India and Pakistan transformed into a triangular conflict involving China. Kashmir has since been the scene of three open wars between India and Pakistan, border clashes with China, decades of insurgency, and continued militarization. It remains one of the most sensitive regions in the world today—a permanent reminder that India's independence was achieved but left wounds that remain unhealed.

The trilateral talks focused on two main issues: jointly combating terrorism and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC is a massive Chinese investment project in Pakistan worth around $70 billion, including roads, rails, refineries, and ports. China is keen to expand CPEC into Afghanistan, which sits on untapped natural resources worth around $1 trillion, including copper, gold, iron, and oil.

At the end of the conflict, China retained control of around 14,700 square miles of territory in Aksai Chin. In 1993 and 1996, the two countries signed agreements to respect the Line of Actual Control, the demarcation line that separates Indian control territory from Chinese control territory in Jammu and Kashmir. Not only does China want Aksai Chin for maintaining a direct route between Tibet and Xinjiang, it appreciates the territory for its strategic position. Aksai Chin is mostly high ground with an average elevation of around 17,700 feet, and if China ever goes to war with its neighbors Pakistan, Kashmir, and India, the Aksai Chin region will enable it to take a commanding high position.

China views Pakistan through three lenses in 2025: First, they are seriously concerned about Pakistan's stability and have essentially given up on recovering their investments. Second, they still see strategic value in Pakistan as a 'dog that keeps snapping at India's heel,' providing encirclement benefits. Third, they view Pakistan as an important ally and foothold into the Middle East. However, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has intensified Baloch grievances because local communities receive no benefits while Chinese companies operate in enclosed areas, with mining projects giving local communities only 2% stakes while Chinese and Pakistani interests hold the majority.

In 1989, widespread popular and armed insurgency began after disputed 1987 state legislative election results. India contends the insurgency was largely started by Afghan mujahadeen who entered Kashmir following the Soviet-Afghan War. Yasin Malik organized militancy along with Ashfaq Majid Wani and Farooq Ahmed Dar (Bitta Karate). Malik renounced violence in 1995 and calls for peaceful methods. Pakistan claims insurgents are Jammu and Kashmir citizens rising against Indian army as part of independence movement. Amnesty International accused security forces of exploiting the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act enabling detention without trial for up to two years. The state human rights commission reported evidence of 2,156 bodies buried in 40 graves over 20 years, with 574 identified as disappeared locals. Violence declined since 2004 with the India-Pakistan peace process, though the 2016-17 unrest resulted in over 90 civilian deaths and 15,000 injured.

Kashmir has had regional aspirations since 1947. The region is divided into Jammu Valley (Hindu), Kashmir Valley (Muslim), and Ladakh (Buddhist/Muslim). National Conference demanded autonomy. Article 370 granted special status with own constitution and flag, but Kashmiris felt it was not fully implemented. In 1989, insurgency began when frustrated residents took up arms, supported by Pakistan. Multiple rounds of violence led to President's Rule being imposed repeatedly. In 2019, India abrogated Article 370, converting Jammu and Kashmir into a Union Territory. The conflict highlights complex ethnic, religious, and political dynamics in the region.

Since 1989, the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley has witnessed an ongoing insurgency against Indian administration. Thousands have been killed, with India responding by ramping up security forces and cracking down on militants. Hundreds of cases of murders and brutality have been recorded, with thousands of people disappearing. Human rights violations are widespread, and the region has been militarized across generations, showing no signs of resolution.

Following the 1987 election crisis, armed insurgency began in Kashmir in 1989. The movement demanded a separate Kashmiri nation and received military and material support from Pakistan. The state was placed under President's Rule, and extreme violence became prevalent. The conflict involved militant attacks, military operations, and a breakdown of normal political activity. This period saw significant human rights violations and a prolonged period of unrest that has continued to affect the region's political and social fabric.

Since 1989, Kashmir has experienced ongoing insurgency against Indian rule, with over 70,000 deaths. Pakistan and Afghanistan support militants who attack Indian forces. The 2016 killing of Burhan Wani sparked widespread protests. Adil Ahmad Dar, a local tailor, developed hatred toward Indian police since age 18. Between 2016-2018, he was arrested six times and beaten, intensifying his rage. This demonstrates how political conflicts and personal grievances can radicalize individuals.